Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Espen Andersen: Disruptive technolgoes, open source and mobile.

This is a blog from the Open Nordic conference in Skien Norway 19-20 june 2008.
Espen Andersen: Disruptive technolgoes, open source and mobile.

Teach at BI, speeches here and there. Interested in serarch right now. Last time he did research on the mobile industry was seen years ago.

The relationship with technology revolution and business. Technologies wishes to make the best technologies.b Examples: Amiga. BeeOs, NeXT, Wankel engine, Betamax, NeXT.

He tells about Microsoft FolderShare that saved him when his computer died, presentation now running on Knut Yrvin´s pc.

The betamax case: Beta had max playtime of 1 hour. VHS worse in every respect, except that it had two hours of . He then tells about the "," and "something" buttons that whites or blacks out the presentation.

Innovation and technology evolution is anything but simple. First of all there is a mix of incremental and revolutional jumps. All the small steps over time do most of the work.

In the beginning of a new technology (in the revolutionary phase), you get a lot of diferent set of sollutions. Mentions weird examples from car industri ;) After a time a dominant design surfaces. For the computers it was the IBM-PC, for the airplane industry it was the DC-3 (Dakota) (mye comment: actually, it was the DC-4 that had the nosewheel, and after that the basic configuration didn´t change). After that you don´t compete on functionality, but on faster better cheaper. The dominant design is never the best technology.

When marketing technology, you have to figure out where you are. He thinks we are in that space with laptops now.

The innovation process is multi leveled: Smooth aggregate growth shadows many levels of variation.

What is a disruptive technology anaway.
  • Your best customers don´t want it
  • It has lower performance (at least in the dimensions you are used to measuring it in)
  • If you did it will loose money
... And it will kill you :) (examples: CDs)

Example: Cookbooks. He was talking to a publisher as a consultant to develop a strategy to put DVDs with cooking videos as a part of a cookbok. He said: What about using the internet (typing in the stuff you have in the fridge, see what google makes of that).. He was never invited to that strategy seminar.

Displaying Clayton Christensen´s clasic quality overshoot diagram, talks through the "disruption from below" scenario.

Talks about media monitoring services (meltwater, news.google.com etc.)

Then about speed responsivenes and customization as factors to use when competing against a functionally superior competitor.

Telco: There is a stack: Network operators, virtual operators, service hosts payment providers and social networks. Layered services building on the servies below. The customers need to talk to each other. Claim: Open source has very little to do with this picture. Roaming agreements do some things: Works for banks, sms, phones.

When you get services built on services, the value of those services increase. The services on top pays for the services down. This is called service complementarity. Users like the whole stack better than we like any one of the networks (note: an operator that is not capable of facilitating complementary services may have a problem).

Some advice to opera: Think like a weapons manufacturer. Start with operating systems, go to handset manufacturers, now sells to operators. Go to the places where there are the most wars (metaphorically ;) (btw, this part of Espen's presentation was picked up by the press and reported in digi.no :-)

Showing an image of the iphone. Telling that the phone people in Ericsson or Nokia would probably say "this is a shitty phone", but it is

The evolution of functionality: Problem, Product, Plattform, Protocol.

Refers to an essay by Neal Stephensen ("in the beginning was the command line"). Great essay. go read it!

If you are going to continue being closed, you have to be -way- much better than the others people. Predicts that facebook will have to burst open or it will be outcompeted by googe.

  • Open soure bild little in elecommunications.
  • Everything needs a business model in the end
  • Open source requires identifiable customers
  • The end user does not care about weher the sercie is open or not (except for DRM and then largely about convenience)
  • Software vendors are weapons amnufacturers. They need to find uruely areas with many local warlords: Opera os-> handset makers -> operators.

Specifici functionality is what it is all about:
  • Always on: Does not need to initiate the session.
  • Location aware: Knows where it is.
  • Information capture Can capture information such as bar codes.
  • Authentication: Can securely identify its user or owner
Talks about a collegue (or something) that has a camera strapped to his body, taking an image every few seconds. He remebers -everything- he has done the last few years.

The personal architecture is where the competition will be played out.

How do you make a technology disruptive: Shows picture the Think car. How do you market an electric car? What you need to do is a find a situatio where the drawbacks of the technology is a plus? Suggestion: Sell to youngsters. You have to address one of two targets: People who can´t affort the stuff. Kids around here (Skien) drives tractors and mopeds. Question: Why don´t Think come up with a moped car that can´t run faster that 45 kph? Just an example ;))

Find unique features (good and bad) Find markets where bad features are good features. Fin markets that are overserved by current tehcology, find markets that is not consuming available technology. Mentions: Sony: Hearing aids for deaf people and transistor radios for teenagers. do not try to take the main competitor head on.

Advice to audience: Focus on the service, find someone who really need you.

Bill Gates laid out his strategy in a Fortune article in 1984. Spelled it out how windows was going to do things. The journalist says that this will not happen because there are mch better offerings out there.

www.espen.com, www.tversover.com, www.appliedabstractions.com

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